TUSCALOOSA, Ala. — Miami Hurricanes quarterback Darian Mensah’s Heisman Trophy chances have fallen despite the Hurricanes continuing to dominate the 2026 season.
Mensah has kicked off the first five weeks of the college football season throwing for 1,438 passing yards, 15 touchdowns, and zero interceptions. He has positioned the Hurricanes as early national championship favorites, as they start 5-0 and are ranked No. 4 in the AP Poll. Even with these statistics, the odds on Mensah have dropped noticeably as the season has progressed.
Kalshi is an app where contract probabilities are determined by traders who find a scenario probable through yes or no questions. According to Kalshi, Mensah is currently at 10% Heisman odds, trailing Keelon Russell with 13% and Jeremiah Smith with 46%. This is a 19-percentage-point drop from Sept. 19, when he was at 29%—a number that was good enough for first place.
One factor could be the lack of ranked opponents. Miami is scheduled to play only No. 25 Pittsburgh and No. 3 Notre Dame. Smith, meanwhile, has already faced No. 1 Texas and No. 20 Iowa. Across those two games, he recorded 19 receptions, 370 yards, and three touchdowns. The Buckeyes are also scheduled to face No. 7 Indiana, No. 19 USC, and No. 13 Oregon.
While both players are on a historic pace, there is a clear gap in competition between the two Heisman candidates. Smith is building a résumé of putting up elite numbers against highly rated opponents, while Mensah has not had the same number of opportunities to do so.
Mensah will have the opportunity to strengthen his case with the Hurricanes' remaining schedule if he can maintain his historic production.